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U.S. stocks finished mixed Monday in a quiet session before Wednesday’s September CPI report and the start of third-quarter earnings season. Analysts expect the data and company results to influence market direction, but the figures and earnings outcomes are not yet known.
U.S. stocks closed mixed Monday as investors waited for September inflation data and the first major reports of third-quarter earnings season, two developments that could shape expectations for interest rates and corporate growth, according to stock market news. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4% to 51,850, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.06% to 7,807 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4% to 27,245, according to Kiplinger’s market report.
Trading was relatively quiet, and no economic reports or corporate earnings were scheduled for release Monday. The bond market was closed for the Columbus Day and Indigenous Peoples’ Day holidays, while the stock market remained open. The calendar gets busier Tuesday, when Johnson & Johnson and JPMorgan Chase are due to report before the market opens, followed by the September Consumer Price Index report on Wednesday morning.
Salesforce helped lift the Dow, gaining 2.1% after BofA Securities analyst Tal Liani raised the stock to Buy from Underperform and increased his price target to $285 from $160. Liani said conversations with chief information officers and other market participants eased his concern that artificial intelligence could displace Salesforce’s software. He argued that large companies are unlikely to replace platforms containing their business logic, data, workflows and compliance systems, and said AI could deepen reliance on them. Those views are the analyst’s assessment, not a confirmed outcome for Salesforce’s business.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended slightly lower, despite remaining near records set the previous week, amid rate pressure on stocks. The Dow was about 4.5% below its early-August record, Kiplinger reported. Monday also marked four years since the current bull market began. Raymond James Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam said the S&P 500 had gained about 118% on a price-return basis during that period, with 124 record closes. The index performance and milestone provide market context, but do not establish how stocks will perform from here.
Inflation and Earnings Could Shift Outlook
The week’s reports matter because investors are weighing two connected questions: whether inflation is easing enough to affect Federal Reserve policy, and whether companies can deliver the earnings growth that has supported stock prices. A CPI reading above expectations could renew concern about borrowing costs; a softer result could ease some pressure, though it would not settle the Fed’s decisions on its own.
Corporate results will provide a separate test of market expectations. FactSet Senior Earnings Analyst John Butters said forecasts call for 30% year-over-year S&P 500 earnings growth in the third quarter. That is a projection, not a reported result. If companies broadly meet or exceed it, investors may see evidence that earnings are sustaining the rally. If results or outlooks disappoint, expectations could be revised. Chris Larkin of E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley said the earnings season may play a larger role in shaping market momentum into year-end.
For readers following retirement accounts or other investments, Monday’s mixed close is a snapshot rather than a reliable signal of the next market move. The upcoming inflation and earnings releases may increase price swings, but their effects will depend on the figures, company guidance and how investors compare them with expectations.
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A Four-Year Rally Near Record Levels
Adam of Raymond James described the bull market as having lasted four years and said the S&P 500’s roughly 118% price gain exceeded the historical average gain of about 90% for bull markets since 1945. He also said the current run ranked third strongest by that measure and had produced more record highs than the average among the seven prior bull markets lasting at least four years. These are historical comparisons cited by Adam; they do not predict future returns.
Adam said earnings growth, rather than expansion in valuation multiples, had driven the market’s advance, and that volatility over the four-year period had remained below average. He cited historical averages suggesting bull markets last about five and a half years. That pattern is descriptive, not a timetable: the length of past rallies cannot determine when the current one will end.
Inflation is a near-term focus after August’s headline CPI was described as uncomfortably high by David Payne, a Kiplinger Letter staff economist and reporter. Payne attributed the pickup to gasoline and fuel oil, shelter costs and airfares. Kiplinger’s report said BofA Securities economists expected September headline inflation to rise from August because of gasoline prices, while core inflation could moderate as tariff-related pressures ease. The report did not provide the CPI figures for September, which had not yet been released.
““Along the way, it has produced 124 record highs.””
— Larry Adam, Raymond James chief investment officer
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Key Figures Have Yet to Arrive
September CPI had not been released at Monday’s close, so the actual pace of headline and core inflation remains unknown. The forecast that headline inflation could rise and core inflation could moderate reflects BofA Securities economists’ expectations, not confirmed data. It is also unclear whether higher airfares will materially lift core inflation or how the Federal Reserve will respond to the report.
Third-quarter earnings are also pending. FactSet’s 30% growth figure is a projection; the final growth rate will depend on company results and subsequent revisions. Salesforce’s price target and AI assessment are likewise an analyst’s opinion, not a company forecast or guarantee. Monday’s market close does not establish whether stocks will continue near record levels or become more volatile.
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CPI and Company Reports Set the Pace
Investors will get the first major corporate results Tuesday morning, when Johnson & Johnson and JPMorgan Chase are scheduled to report. Their results and outlooks will offer an early read on performance across health care and financial services, though they represent only a small part of the broader earnings season.
The next major scheduled economic release is the September CPI report Wednesday morning. After it is published, investors can compare the actual inflation figures with expectations and monitor market reactions. Further earnings reports will arrive through the season; the overall growth rate and companies’ guidance will become clearer as more results are reported.
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Key Questions
How did the major U.S. stock indexes close Monday?
The Dow rose 0.4% to 51,850. The S&P 500 fell 0.06% to 7,807, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.4% to 27,245, according to Kiplinger.
When is the September CPI report scheduled?
The September Consumer Price Index report is scheduled for Wednesday morning. Its figures were not available at Monday’s market close.
Which companies are due to report earnings first?
Johnson & Johnson and JPMorgan Chase are scheduled to report before the market opens Tuesday, according to the report.
Is the 30% earnings growth figure confirmed?
No. FactSet’s John Butters cited 30% year-over-year growth as the current projection for S&P 500 third-quarter earnings. The final rate depends on company results and may differ from the forecast.
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