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The ECB’s September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey found a small rise in perceived and expected near-term inflation, alongside higher income and spending growth expectations. Respondents were less optimistic about economic growth and expected higher unemployment, while longer-term inflation expectations and mortgage-rate expectations were unchanged.
The European Central Bank said consumers’ near-term inflation expectations edged higher in September, while expectations for economic growth weakened and expected unemployment rose. The monthly survey, published on 23 October 2026, also recorded increases in expected income growth, spending growth and home-price growth, with longer-term inflation expectations unchanged.
Median perceived inflation over the previous 12 months rose to 3.6% from 3.5% in August, while median inflation expectations for the next 12 months increased to 3.1% from 3.0%. Expectations three years ahead remained at 2.9%, and those five years ahead stayed at 2.5%. The ECB also reported a slight increase in uncertainty about inflation over the next year; it remained above its level before the conflict in the Middle East began.
Consumers expected nominal income growth of 1.1% over the next 12 months, up from 1.0% in August. Expected nominal spending growth over the same period rose to 3.7% from 3.6%, while perceived spending growth over the previous year increased to 5.3% from 5.2%.
The outlook for the economy deteriorated: expected growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2%, and the expected unemployment rate in 12 months rose to 11.3% from 11.0%. Consumers expected home prices to rise 3.5% over the coming year, compared with 3.4% in August. Expected mortgage rates in 12 months remained at 4.9%. The ECB said net reports of tighter credit access increased, both for the past year and for expectations about the year ahead.
Households See Higher Costs and Risks
The results point to a mixed household outlook: consumers expect slightly faster near-term price growth and higher spending, but also weaker economic growth and a higher unemployment rate. These expectations matter because household views on prices and jobs can inform assessments of future consumption and economic conditions.
The figures are survey responses, not forecasts or confirmed outcomes. They do not establish what inflation, employment, borrowing costs or home prices will actually do. The ECB says the survey is used for policy analysis and complements other data sources; it also states that the results do not represent the views of its decision-making bodies or staff.
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How the ECB Survey Was Collected
The Consumer Expectations Survey is a monthly online survey of around 19,000 adults in 11 euro-area countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland. The September wave’s fieldwork took place from 27 August to 28 September 2026.
The ECB release says the reported figures are generally based on the 2% winsorised mean, unless otherwise specified. Its headline comparisons describe changes from August. The ECB also reported differences by income and age: respondents in the lowest income group reported higher inflation perceptions and expectations than those in the highest group, while respondents aged 18 to 34 continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents.
““Consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be only slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.6%), suggesting a broadly stable labour market outlook.””
— European Central Bank
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Survey Expectations Are Not Outcomes
The survey records consumers’ perceptions and expectations; it does not establish future economic results or explain why responses changed between August and September. The ECB release does not provide a causal account for the shifts in inflation, growth or unemployment expectations.
Uncertainty about inflation expectations increased slightly, and the ECB said it remained above its pre-conflict level, but the release did not quantify that uncertainty change. It also reported increased net responses indicating tighter credit conditions without giving a percentage-point figure in the press release. The findings cover surveyed consumers in 11 euro-area countries, so they should not be read as a direct measure of every household’s views.
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October Results Due in November
The ECB scheduled publication of the October 2026 survey results for 27 November 2026. Those results will provide the next monthly comparison for consumer inflation expectations, spending and income outlooks, employment expectations, housing and credit access.
The ECB says detailed aggregate results for individual countries and the euro area are published on its website and Data Portal. Microdata and methodological information are available through the survey’s web page, allowing readers to review the underlying data and how the aggregate statistics are calculated.
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Key Questions
When did the ECB publish the September 2026 survey?
The European Central Bank published the results on 23 October 2026. Fieldwork for the survey ran from 27 August to 28 September.
What happened to inflation expectations?
Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% from 3.0% in August. Expectations three years ahead remained at 2.9%, and those five years ahead stayed at 2.5%.
What did respondents expect for growth and unemployment?
Expected economic growth over the next 12 months declined to -1.5% from -1.2%. The expected unemployment rate in 12 months increased to 11.3% from 11.0%.
Did expected mortgage rates change?
No. The ECB reported that consumers’ expectations for mortgage interest rates in 12 months remained at 4.9%.
When are the next survey results scheduled?
The ECB scheduled publication of the October 2026 results for 27 November 2026.
Source: primary
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