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Former U.S. sanctions official Edward Fishman told a Colorado mining conference that Washington cannot reduce its dependence on Chinese minerals without Canadian and Australian mining expertise, and that U.S. hostility toward Canada threatens that effort. China accounted for 91% of global refined rare earth output in 2024, according to the IEA.
Washington’s hostility toward Canada threatens the U.S. effort to reduce its dependence on Chinese minerals, former U.S. sanctions official Edward Fishman said Monday at the Mining Forum Americas in Colorado Springs. The United States has the money and political will to invest in mineral supplies but needs Canadian and Australian mining expertise to develop them, said Fishman, a Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow who helped design U.S. sanctions against Russia and Iran.
“I think if we are going to antagonize Canada, it’s going to be virtually impossible for us to get out of this dependence from China,” Fishman told the conference. “We can’t do it. We, as in the United States, cannot do it without the Canadians.” Fishman, who served in the Obama Administration before leaving government in 2017 and now directs CFR’s Greenberg Center for Geoeconomics, argued that working more closely with allies would strengthen U.S. economic security.
According to Fishman, the remarks point to a tension in Washington’s minerals strategy: securing supply requires allied cooperation even as trade disputes strain those same relationships.
Fishman said mining has become central to geopolitical competition previously dominated by finance and technology. China’s mineral-processing industry gives it leverage comparable to Washington’s influence over dollar payments and advanced technology, he argued. That concentration is sharpest in rare earths used in magnets: China accounted for 91% of global refined output in 2024, versus 60% of mined production, according to the International Energy Agency. Chinese export controls introduced in April last year disrupted magnet supplies and forced some automakers to curtail or temporarily halt production, the agency said.
Why Allied Cooperation Drives Minerals Security
Fishman described a practical constraint on U.S. policy: capital and political will alone, in his view, cannot substitute for the technical capacity concentrated in Canada’s and Australia’s mining sectors. He also noted that economic confrontation predates the current administration. While President Donald Trump favours tariffs and targets allies as well as adversaries, Fishman said successive U.S. administrations have expanded their use of economic pressure — and mining investments outlast election cycles, in his assessment, making supply-chain competition a persistent business concern regardless of who holds office.
Fishman said dividing the world economy into competing blocs carries risks including higher energy costs, inflation and uncertainty. He also said the trend can benefit the mining sector: demand linked to artificial intelligence and electrification supports copper, and financial-security concerns encourage central banks to hold gold. Fishman said structural reasons exist for sovereign gold buying to continue for at least another decade, though gold will not replace the dollar across all its uses.
From Tariffs to Thompson Creek
The comments came during a conference session that also featured Canadian miners positioning themselves within U.S. industrial supply chains. Centerra Gold (TSX: CG; NYSE: CGAU) is restarting its Thompson Creek molybdenum mine in Idaho to supply its Langeloth processing facility in Pennsylvania. First mine production is targeted for mid-2027, with restart capital estimated at $425 million to $450 million (C$602.5 million to C$640 million), according to the company’s latest quarterly results. Molybdenum strengthens steel used in energy infrastructure, defence and aerospace.
Centerra CEO Paul Tomory said the company’s U.S. business stands to benefit from expanding domestic steel production. “We believe we have a U.S.-based business here that is very attractive in the context of the current reindustrialization push, particularly in the steel supply chain that is taking place in the U.S.,” he told the conference. He said investor questions about why a gold and copper company was restarting a molybdenum mine had faded as construction advanced. Centerra remains open to an initial public offering or separation of the business, but will not rush a transaction at the expense of shareholder value, Tomory said.
Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL) CEO Rob Krcmarov made a related argument about operating in lower-risk countries, pointing to Hecla’s three silver mines — Greens Creek in Alaska, Lucky Friday in Idaho and Keno Hill in Yukon. “Lower jurisdictional risk, it means security in our future cash flows and our production,” he said, adding that this supports a premium valuation and that Hecla plans to grow through assets it already owns rather than relying on acquisitions.
“I think if we are going to antagonize Canada, it’s going to be virtually impossible for us to get out of this dependence from China. We can’t do it. We, as in the United States, cannot do it without the Canadians.”
— Edward Fishman, senior fellow, Council on Foreign Relations
Defining What ‘Secure Supply’ Means
Fishman said governments still need to define what secure mineral supply actually means, noting that eliminating dependence on China is a different objective from reducing it to an acceptable level. He urged mining companies to help policymakers set realistic targets and explain how proposed measures would affect operations, arguing that while governments set sanctions and trade policies, businesses implement them and understand the practical constraints.
It remains unclear how, or whether, Washington and Ottawa will adjust trade relations in response to arguments like Fishman’s, and no specific policy changes were announced at the forum. The pace and terms of any potential separation or IPO of Centerra’s molybdenum business are also undecided, according to Tomory. The original report was truncated mid-sentence, and details of Fishman’s closing remarks on Canada’s diversification efforts were not available.
Watch U.S.-Canada Policy and Mine Restart Timelines
Key developments to monitor include the trajectory of U.S.-Canada trade relations and any policy response from either government to allied-minerals arguments; further moves by China on rare earth export controls and their effect on manufacturers; Centerra’s progress toward first production at Thompson Creek, targeted for mid-2027, alongside any decision on an IPO or separation of the molybdenum business; and continued central bank gold buying, which Fishman said has structural support for at least another decade.
Key Questions
Why does the U.S. need Canada to reduce dependence on Chinese minerals?
According to Edward Fishman of the Council on Foreign Relations, the United States has capital and political will but lacks the mining development expertise concentrated in Canada and Australia. He said the U.S. “cannot do it without the Canadians.”
How dominant is China in rare earth supply?
China accounted for 91% of global refined rare earth output in 2024 and 60% of mined production, according to the International Energy Agency. Its export controls introduced in April last year disrupted magnet supplies and forced some automakers to curtail production.
What did Fishman say about the Trump administration specifically?
He cautioned against treating economic confrontation as temporary. While Trump favours tariffs and targets allies as well as adversaries, Fishman noted that successive U.S. administrations have expanded economic pressure, and mining investments outlast election cycles.
What is Centerra Gold doing in the United States?
The Toronto-based company is restarting its Thompson Creek molybdenum mine in Idaho to supply its Langeloth facility in Pennsylvania, with first production targeted for mid-2027 and restart capital estimated at $425 million to $450 million. It remains open to an IPO or separation of the business.
Did Fishman see any upside for miners from geopolitical fragmentation?
He said AI and electrification demand supports copper, and financial-security concerns encourage central bank gold buying, which he said has structural support to continue for at least another decade — though gold will not replace the dollar across all its uses.
Source: rss
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